Beginner's guide

What Is No-Vig Probability?

Remove the sportsbook's built-in fee to estimate the market's fair probability.

Written and reviewed by LineLens · Reviewed July 18, 2026 · 5–7 minute read

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The short answer

No-vig probability is an estimate of an outcome's true probability after removing the sportsbook's built-in fee. Sportsbook odds describe both the event and the price the book charges. Removing that extra charge makes different books easier to compare.

Simple example

If both sides are priced at -110, each side implies a 52.38% chance. Together that equals 104.76%, which cannot be the true probability of a two-outcome market. Dividing each side by the 104.76% total produces a no-vig estimate of 50% for each side.

Why sportsbooks add vig

The extra probability is often called the vig, hold, juice, or margin. It gives the sportsbook a theoretical advantage when it accepts bets on both sides. A larger margin generally means a worse price for the bettor.

LineLens removes each book's vig separately before combining the results. It never mixes a -3 spread with a -3.5 spread because those are different bets.

How to use it

  • Compare the exact same outcome and line.
  • Convert every price to implied probability.
  • Divide each side by the market's total implied probability.
  • Compare the resulting fair probability with the payout being offered.

What it cannot tell you

No-vig probability is a market estimate, not a prediction guaranteed to be correct. Thin markets, stale prices, injuries, and late information can all weaken it. A 50% estimate still means losing about half the time.

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